August 24, 2019 HomeArticlesWhy Intelligence Failures Happen? Why Intelligence Failures Happen? By Maxine Hayes Articles, Blog 64 Comments Tags:Analysis, and, Assessment, Assumptions, Decisions, documentary, education, Failures, History, intelligence, the, Visualized, Why Related Posts Polaroid Snap Touch Instant Camera with zero in Zink paper review – Review Cruncher My CR250 Rims Are Bent! Elevator Industry: Teardown Elevator Drive / [Kone V3F16L] / Teardown & IGBT Test About Author admin 64 Comments أ S great video November 8, 2016 Reply apud harald +1 November 8, 2016 Reply MarauderPL Looking at the title I thought that its about "Why intelligent people sometimes behave like idiots" xD Well, I guess that was my intelligence failing me… November 8, 2016 Reply أ S but the background music in the end is anticlimactic November 8, 2016 Reply Thane36425 I may have missed it, but another major problem is turf wars amongst the intelligence agencies. They all want to guard their turf whilst trying to get more, so they may horde information and this distorts the overall picture. After 9/11, the US created the DHS as an information clearinghouse to get around this problem. However, that only lasted a couple of months before the infighting came back and now had a new and major player in the form of the DHS itself. Simply put, the whole episode serves as an example of the bad things that can happen as described in this video. November 8, 2016 Reply CMDR Johnsybravo I feel bad for all of the Army flow charts he had to try to read. Those things are so vague November 8, 2016 Reply momoali007 because he rolled a 2d20 and got below 5? 😉 November 8, 2016 Reply Mr BigCookie very interesting November 8, 2016 Reply PerfectTangent I can attest, as well, that valid intelligence can come from the very bottom and try to work its way up the chain, but rank and personality get into pissing contests that often results in a report either being watered down or simply ignored. There is also a wealth of intelligence never actioned simply because an intelligence agency (or branch) is just that, an intelligence agency. It's usually not for them to action the intel they produce. For what it's worth, anyway. November 8, 2016 Reply Sofus Could you make a video of Luftwaffe Field Division. Or the different army branches in Nazi Germany. Luftwaffe Field Division / Waffen-SS / Heer / Kriegsmarine divisions. It is an interesting topic, and not everyone knows there is more then army and Waffen-SS. November 8, 2016 Reply kalamaron i There's a famous exercise in which you get lots of people to guess the number of beans in a jar, and while each individual guess might be wildly off, the mean is quite accurate. Admittedly this relies on normal distribution, but it is an interesting example of decision making. I often wonder about this exercise when thinking about the political debate within the US of when to join world war two. Either side would have been wildly off by themselves, but the consensus after the attack on Pearl Harbor ended up being quite fortuitous for the US. November 8, 2016 Reply Ryan Cartwright if I was going for world domination I'd pick you as a general November 8, 2016 Reply nattygsbord Interesting video.A factor I think also can lead to failed decisions is the human ability to see patters between things, even if no such thing exist. Its just imagination. For example, correlation isn't the same thing as a causation. Just because ice cream consumption and murders have risen at the same time, doesn't mean that ice cream consumption leads to murder. November 8, 2016 Reply AngMori Heh, SIGINT. November 8, 2016 Reply Hippie McFake I'm not a native speaker myself, but shouldn't the title be "Why DO intelligence failures happen?" November 8, 2016 Reply nattygsbord A good example of an organizational reform, was the germans decision to hand over more decision making from the high level to the NCOs. That improved decision making by taking the burden of analyzing information for the high level, and people on the lower level got more freedom to act upon first hand information.Chiefs at the higher level would simply be unable to have a good overview upon EVERYTHING happening on the battlefield… The fighting morale of his men, the combat strenght of the enemy, having knowledge of if a logistics transport have been halted by a mine… all those small details that make up a greater whole of a military operation. By this model information can be faster interpreted, and transformed into action.Having a centralized organization can work in a factory, but in far you have a time factor for your decision making, and not everything works as anticipated. And your enemy makes everything he can to mislead you, and whenever he can he will also surprise you.. and sometimes he will also probably succed. And other factors aren't known as well, you don't know how well your untested weaponsystems will perform. You don't know how fighting morale will be affected by the unique circumstances at the moment.So therefore you can't plan everything into the smallest detail, so some flexibility and improvisation is needed. But of course you also need to set up a larger strategic goal in your war, but there must be some flexibility to act upon the circumstances to fullfill your plan. This flexibility gave the germans a great advantage in both the world wars. And the NCOs felt a greater personal repsonsability when he was not just a cog a in a machinery, but a man with responsability for his own unit.. to make sure that his assault is succesful and that objective is captured, that the logistics runs smoothly, and that coordination functions properly. November 8, 2016 Reply John Hazatoth My old job! never thought MHV would bring this topic up. Great work, buddy! November 8, 2016 Reply Paul Serdiuk You should expand the definition of OSINT to include publically available satellite imagery (e.g. Google Earth or DigitalGlobe) and social network analysis (e.g. YouTube videos, tweets and Facebook posts). They are a goldmine. November 8, 2016 Reply Maxens A @Military History Visualized :+Military History Visualized : Technically-speaking, how do you record your PPT presentations? What software do you use? November 8, 2016 Reply DoddyIshamel This is one of your best videos yet man, keep up the good work. November 8, 2016 Reply SterlingSteve This was posted on the day of the 2016 American presidential election. While the outcome is yet unknown; This video came too late to save us. November 8, 2016 Reply Anon Viewer Interesting observation, Mr. Betts. Were you part of the intelligence community, perchance? November 8, 2016 Reply Alex Cameron Failure…Western intelligence failure to recognize islamic ambitions to colonize Europe and the rest of the West, activated through Saudi and gulf Arab state petrodollars, diplomatic efforts of OIC, infiltration of paths of influence by the muslim brotherhood organization and it's fronts. November 8, 2016 Reply sam smith WW2 an good example of German inteligence failure was the normandy landings. How didn;t they see that one coming? November 8, 2016 Reply Bart Bols If only trump would have had this video before he ran November 8, 2016 Reply iosef 333 Outro song? November 8, 2016 Reply 101jir The answer to sooo many popular conspiracy theories in a nutshell! November 8, 2016 Reply Jim Boyles Really good video! Would love to see this topic covered in even more depth! 👍 November 8, 2016 Reply zchen27 Still not exactly sure if you are trying to say "failure" or "Fehler". Well, I supposed either would work. November 8, 2016 Reply Jose Quintans Bravo! A great introduction. November 8, 2016 Reply Cannonfodder43 An excellent video on the topic of Military Intelligence. November 8, 2016 Reply Neil Wilson Really good. This channel gets better and better. November 8, 2016 Reply Álvaro Alonso Macías Good video, but not well presented. It is a really dificult task t summarize so many information! November 9, 2016 Reply Stephen Wilhelm Measurement and Signature Intelligence is everything that isn't already something else. November 9, 2016 Reply MakeMeThinkAgain I you mentioned the problem of people seeing what they expect to see, I missed it. What Clausewitz wrote in "On War" about the fog of war, and how the commander needs to penetrate that with his intuition, applies here as well. November 9, 2016 Reply MrRenegadeshinobi Can you do a video on the evolution of special operations forces and tactics and special operations in the 20th century. November 9, 2016 Reply Mikhailia Gacesa So how did German intelligence miss all those Russian divisions in Barbarossa? (I'm going to watch the Barbarossa Blunders vid again) November 9, 2016 Reply Oxide Hillary should take notes tbh November 9, 2016 Reply Pan Z A video suggestion/idea I would just like to see at one point (since no one else has done it) is wow WWII German squad and battalion tactics compared to British and American ones November 9, 2016 Reply Ice Cold Intelligence failures happen because people is not "intelligent" enough. November 9, 2016 Reply Conor Hoary What was your thinking behind using the wheat and sword for the symbol of ambiguity? November 9, 2016 Reply Wazzazization can you make a video about german assault troops/tactics during ww2? i cant find anything on the subject November 10, 2016 Reply DarkZephyr ! I showed you videos to my history teacher and she said she would use them for class and she loved them keep up the great work November 10, 2016 Reply joshua fiddy allen love your content dude but think i love listening to your voice and accent. November 10, 2016 Reply Cotta One other cause of intelligence failure, though, is the issue of analysts writing reports that confirm what decision-makers are looking for (it's been a while since I read the book, but it was mentioned as a potential problem in an article in the "Handbook of Intelligence Studies" edited by Loch K. Johnson). Overall, awesome content and fantastic channel! Keep it up! November 10, 2016 Reply Luis Corzo jr_ Do you know specifically, how many trucks, jeeps, halftracks, and motorcycles were used in op Barbarossa? The quantity of every of these four types of vehicles? I've been looking for that fact for years November 11, 2016 Reply AmNotHere911 Will you be doing videos on Turkish/mongol horse-archer tactics using a famous battle – like Manzkert? – as a test-case to show how such tactics often worked? November 13, 2016 Reply Addison Watkins Just found your channel it's great subscribed November 20, 2016 Reply Thomas Wolke The most egregious intelligence failures result from the bureaucratic environment that discourages imagination. The analyst is not allowed to make assessments that exceed the available intelligence because that is considered speculation, not extrapolation. And because the available intelligence is typically meager and distorted, the system tends towards caution and timidity. November 20, 2016 Reply REgamesplayer The analysis and preparation must be direction driven. For example: Japan threat is rising. Germans are unstable. Solution: preparation for war. You increase hugely funds allocated to new technologies and "soft" things which do not escalate situation as much such as stockpiling ammunition. That steps you take is even more important than intelligence in itself. You actually need zero intelligence about the enemy if you can outfight it, outsmart it and outmaneuver it. In other words, a superior foe does not need to know its enemy, just have that predatory instinct and know how to kill it. November 29, 2016 Reply schizoidboy I remember hearing from someone who served in the Panama Invasion. One of the places they raided was an intelligence building and they were surprised of the amount of intelligence the Panamanians had on the American forces, however, considering the outcome of the Invasion it was clear that none this was utilized. Just having the information is not enough and as shown here not all intelligence is clear cut. November 30, 2016 Reply Yog Sothoth The other thing about assuming a worst case scenario is that you may end up spreading your resources too thin as you are trying to deal with enlarge number of threats many of which may not exist. He who defends everything defends nothing. December 2, 2016 Reply Lorne Dmitruk I'm currently reading The Secret War by Max Hastings. It covers intelligence operations by all sides during WWII and some of the intelligence failures on all sides are quite interesting. December 21, 2016 Reply Luiz Alex Phoenix In other words, the most probable link to break is the one who suffers the most pressure and is less prepared for it. It sounds as vague as it normally is… March 12, 2017 Reply Titus Tucker American Intelligence (not necessarily for me but to many an Oxi-Moron, I happen to know good stuff they've done that many have not investigated), is a 2 edge sword, one side as sharp as a surgeons scapula, the other side dull and dented. They are very good at spying on the average American Joe, who in reality is about as dangerous to American security as the average crack dependent homeless person, but when it comes to the really important stuff falls flat time after time, often to the point of embarrassment, we just had an incident where a chugging freighter ship rammed (apparently on purpose) a highly sophisticated war destroyer, damn near sinking it (they couldn't see THAT coming, both literally and in the abstract)! I can give many more examples, many of which is already known. June 26, 2017 Reply Will Nettles During the Cold War, early to mid 1980s the CIA reported that the Soviet and East Block Nations had 50,000 main line battle tanks ready to invade Western Europe. Sources who criticized this said they were counting every rusted T-34 bolted to a concrete plinth as a war monument. So what was the real situation? Also if there were battalions of old T-34s still in working condition, how effective would they have been in a 1980s battle against NATO forces? (The artist Chris Burden made a work called, "The Reason for the Neutron Bomb" he put 50,000 US nickels on the floor of a museum and placed a match stick on top to represent a tank. It was sobering. I don't think he was making an overt political statement, but challenging viewers to think about numbers, scale and war in terms of cost and potential harm) July 14, 2017 Reply binaway ambiguity. ( am-big-you-it-ee) December 31, 2017 Reply Razar Campbell I think if SigInt operators were supplied with amphetamines and the analysis branch were supplied with heroin, intelligence would be far more accurate and effective. March 24, 2018 Reply Dirty Dan "Humint is fake news, Sigint is the future of the intelligence community. " – Mattis circa 2017 April 8, 2018 Reply rambo8wradio I always thought James Bond was more like Counter Intelligence.. August 28, 2018 Reply LogoSeven Only twice… December 1, 2018 Reply G D the biases of decision makers in the CIA led us to a number of bad policies and involvements in the 50's thru the 70's . That happens everywhere. The like-ability of the bearer of the news is a big factor that people think they are above. You don't like somebody ..you are likely to marginalize him. January 9, 2019 Reply Benjamin Etxaburu the quoted book:https://archive.org/details/AnalysisWarandDecisions-WhyIntelligenceFailuresareInevitable1979-09-01/page/n1 April 10, 2019 Reply anthony pennant Love your videos, always well thought out and researched. April 21, 2019 Reply Add a Comment Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment:*Name:* Email Address:* Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.